72 days to go..

Today, the dates of the General Election of world's largest democracy has been announced. We have 72 days to see the change in Government. This happens on a day when we witnessed mobocracy of 2 parties who are claiming themselves against incumbent Congress. There are few obvious in this election and some unpredicted questions:

Few obvious things which are going to happen:

1. Congress is going to lose the election and perhaps reaches to lowest ever tally.
2. BJP will be single largest party and NDA will be largest alliance.

Unpredicted Questions which may come up after election results:

1. Can BJP keep up the momentum and march towards half marks with their alliances and make Modi PM?
2. Is AAP going to hurt BJP's chances in urban center?
3. Is there a possibility of third front Govt with the support of Congress?
4. Who will be BJP's PM candidate if they don't get number or they can gather other party's support for Modi?
5. Who will be the next Devegoda or Gujral in case third front makes the government?

Watch it out .. First time we are seeing the awareness among people for change and they are here at least to support and vote for somebody. Whether it is an idealistic vote for AAP or realistic vote for BJP!!!

The BJP failed itself in political calculations…

Once upon a time, The BJP gave a slogan "Party with the difference" is now no more different than any other political party in India. Party needed to choose whether it wants to be a liberal Nationalist party which welcomes all kind of people or more a right wing party which polarizes and wins election. The BJP chooses the second option and cornered all its liberal and more accepted leaders among all political parties like Adavani, Jaswant Singh and Yashwant Sinha.
          The BJP already lost an opportunity to win the Election in 2009 is on the verge to lose it again even if it wins highest number of parliamentary seats in 2014.The Alliance politics is a reality in India and BJP which doesn’t have its presence in some of the southern and north eastern states will surely need political alliances to get the majority marks. Political strategist in BJP understood this after being in power for just 13 days in 1996. They had learned their lessons and went ahead to make a big alliance NDA with 24 parties to gain power in 1999 under a liberal and well accepted leader Atalji and run this country efficiently for 5 years. NDA is reduced to now 3 parties, though there are few parties which can still support the party like AIADMK and TDP, but it is surely missing the magic number in Parliament 2014. With a controversial figure heading the party in the poll, the party will not win any other party alliances for sure.
           The BJP’s dream of getting to the majority is a distance dream. The party itself has issued a guide to its worker that BJP has won 291 seats at least once out of 545 seats and they should target these seats to win. If we believe that there is a wave of Modi in the country and assume the strike rate of BJP will be 70%, which will mean that Congress will reduce to two figure but then also the party will win only 200 seats, it’s all time high. Adding its all alliances number, the tally can hardly reach to magic figure of 272 in the best case scenario.
            I can only hope that after the election, BJP can rely again on its liberal face like Adavani and can do some political jugad to gain the power otherwise we are all set to see new Devegaudas and Gujrals in 2014..